By: Mir Ahmad Mashal

Introduction
Afghanistan is geographically in a special position. In the north of this land-locked country, there is the Central Asia, in the south is South Asia (with the neighboring of Pakistan), in the east is China (the mountainous region of Xinjiang) and in the west is Iran. Although Afghanistan is in political-security, economic and even social interdependence with all its surrounding regions, it has had strong security interdependence and economic interactions with South Asia in the past decades. The reason was Afghanistan's involvement in the political and security issues of the chaotic South Asian region, and the increase in the level of economic relations with this region. In other words, by adopting a security-oriented approach, Afghanistan has thrown itself into the vortex of the critical area of South Asia, and in this way, it has gained unfavorable conditions, the most important of which was the harmful economic consequences that hit this country.

Afghanistan's security-oriented approach, which was at its peak during Hamid Karzai’s time, was officially abandoned when Ashraf Ghani took office, and it was replaced by an economic-oriented foreign policy. One of the important features of such an approach was the reduction of economic interactions with South Asia, especially Pakistan, as a crisis-causing region, and the increase of economic interactions with Central Asia as a calm and somewhat non-security region. The goal of this approach was that Afghanistan would also reduce its vulnerability from Pakistan in terms of security, by reducing the level of economic relations with this country; Because Afghanistan's strong economic dependence on Pakistan had turned into Pakistan’s security tool against Afghanistan. Something that still continues more or less.

With the collapse of the republican system and the re-establishment of the Taliban government, it can be seen that such an approach is followed more strongly in Afghanistan's foreign policy. Despite the fact that the Taliban had Pakistan’s support during its fight against the U.S and the republican system, it has based its foreign policy on an economy-oriented approach, with the aim of moving away from Pakistan and getting closer to Central Asia, like the Ashraf Ghani’s presidency time. Regarding this issue, the question is: To what extent can Central Asia be a suitable alternative to Pakistan in economic relations for Afghanistan? In other words, can Central Asia make Afghanistan self-sufficient and independent from Pakistan?

Why Afghanistan should reduce its economic relations with South Asia?
It might be asked that although South Asia has many economic advantages for Afghanistan, why should this country reduce its economic interaction with this region? In response to this question, it can be said that Afghanistan has such a security conflict with the South Asian region that it is very difficult to get away from it. Afghanistan cannot avoid conflict with South Asia for two reasons. The first reason is the controversial and crisis-generating issue of Durand Line which none of Afghan government have been able to ignore it. Since the formation of Pakistan country, this issue has created a security atmosphere between the two countries.

The second reason is that in order to compete with Pakistan, Afghanistan has to adopt a close policy with India, which can be seen in the country's behavior in the last few decades. After the Taliban came to power, Pakistanis calculated that the issue of the Durand Line and the rapprochement with India will be removed from Taliban government’s agenda. However, as seen in the last two and a half years, the Taliban has been following the approach of previous governments, at least regarding the Durand Line issue. It is also not unlikely that the Taliban will use India as a tool against Pakistan in the future. As a result, regardless of the type of system in Afghanistan, this country’s conflict with South Asia is inevitable. Due to this conflict on the one hand, and Afghanistan's economic need on Pakistan on the other hand, economic relations between Kabul and Islamabad have always been a leverage in Pakistan’s hands. therefore, despite all the advantages, Afghanistan is forced to think of a solution regarding this problem.

Central Asia as an alternative to South Asia
Economically, the South Asian has many advantages for Afghanistan. This densely populated region has three major economic advantages for Afghanistan. First, South Asia is the only demanding market for Afghan products. Reports show that Afghanistan has exported the most to Pakistan and India. Second, South Asia is a good source for supplying some of Afghanistan's major consumer goods, and third, this region is the closest way for Afghanistan to access sea ports. But as explained, Afghanistan's security conflict with this region has had destructive and negative effects on Afghanistan. Therefore, Afghanistan is looking for an alternative to reduce the negative economic consequences caused by the security conflict with this region. For this reason, during Ashraf Ghani's rule, Central Asia was proposed as an alternative to Pakistan and South Asia as a whole. Taliban’s current approaches show that such a policy is also on their agenda. But the question is whether Central Asia has the capacity and capability to be an alternative to Pakistan?

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of political developments in Afghanistan, this country had the most economic and political relations with the Soviet Union and its neighboring republics in that union. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the division of Central Asia into five independent republics and the emergence of political developments in Afghanistan, the country's political-security and economic relations with Central Asia decreased sharply. Now, in the current situation which is completely different from the past, Can Central Asia be Pakistan's economic alternative for Afghanistan?
 It can be said that relatively yes, but in general, Central Asia is somewhat unable to make Afghanistan independent from Pakistan. In general, Central Asia has some economic advantage for Afghanistan, compared to Pakistan. The first point which is very important is the lack of security issues between Afghanistan and Central Asia. This point has acted as an obstacle in the economic sphere between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which Central Asia is almost free of.

Of course, there are speculations about the shared water resources between Afghanistan and the two countries of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which has the possibility of becoming a security issue in Afghanistan's relations with its two northern neighbors. But even if there is a dispute over this issue, we cannot expect securitization of relations between the two sides, like the security relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The second point is that Pakistan is more interested in security issues in Afghanistan than economic ones. But Central Asian countries see Afghanistan as a good economic case. In other words, by pursuing the policy of strategic depth, Pakistan seeks for security use of Afghanistan against India, as its main rival. But the Central Asian countries lack such an approach. Therefore, Pakistan always follows the policy of a weak and dependent Afghanistan, and in contrast, Central Asian countries demand a stable and economically attractive Afghanistan for themselves.

Economically, Central Asia with five countries in it, can provide a major part of Afghanistan's economic needs. In fact, the five Central Asian countries can be a complete supply package for Afghanistan's economy. On the other hand, these five countries have the capacity to become a broad market for Afghan products. Another advantage of Central Asia for Afghanistan, compared to Pakistan, is that Afghanistan has ports (customs) with each of its northern neighboring countries, almost all of which have connected Central Asian countries to Afghanistan through railway. This advantage is useful for Afghanistan both in diversification and high-volume business transactions. The last advantage that Central Asia has over Pakistan, is connecting Afghanistan to China, Russia and Europe. If we also take this point into consideration, Afghanistan can connect and interact with almost half of the world through this region.

Despite the aforementioned capacities and facilities, what Central Asia is unable to fulfill for Afghanistan is providing Afghanistan access to sea ports. In this matter, Central Asia is more in a bottleneck than Afghanistan. Afghanistan can access open waters by passing through one country, but among Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan is doubly landlocked: that is, in order to reach the sea, it has to pass through the territory of two countries. Other countries can reach the sea by passing through a country, but they usually have to travel relatively long distances for this. Hence, this region cannot meet one of the most important economic needs of Afghanistan, and this country will continue to need Pakistan (or Iran) in this regard.

Therefore, an alternative option that can make Afghanistan almost independent from Pakistan is Iran. Iran as Afghanistan's neighbor with sea ports, is the only way for Afghanistan to access open waters without passing through Pakistan. In its new economy-oriented approach, Afghanistan has particularly counted on Iran for meeting its need for sea ports, and along with the economic turn to Central Asia, it has made agreements with Iran and India regarding the use of Iran's sea ports, especially Chabahar Port.

The right solution for Afghanistan
Considering Afghanistan's geographical situation and its numerous economic needs, this country should adopt an economic-oriented foreign policy long ago, but this is only one side of the coin. The other side of the coin, which acts as a complement to such a policy and is considered as its serious prerequisite, is having a neutral and balanced foreign policy. Undoubtedly, without neutrality and balance, economy-oriented foreign policy will not be a successful policy On the other hand, economy-oriented policy cannot be simultaneously with security-oriented policy.

For example, Ashraf Ghani, on the one hand, supported economic-oriented foreign policy and was apparently trying in this direction, but on the other hand, he was in an alliance with one country against another country. In the meantime, the presence of the United States in Afghanistan complicates this situation even more. Although during the republican period when the US was all-powerful in Afghanistan, this country lacked an independent foreign policy, but the Afghan government itself had mixed economy-oriented policy with security-oriented one, and allied with one against the other. Therefore, not only these wrong policies did not pave the way for prosperity in Afghanistan, but also made the Central Asian countries pessimistic about cooperation with Afghanistan.

But now that neither the US nor that type of government is present in Afghanistan, it is appropriate for the new Afghan government to adopt a regional approach to gain maximum benefits from its economy-oriented foreign policy. This should be done by observing the principle of neutrality, avoiding conflicts with neighbors, and not defining security goals. Taliban should also put economy-oriented foreign policy on its agenda, both at the declaration level and at the practical level.

Mir Ahmad Mashal, senior expert in international relations.