By: Abbas Fayaz

After several delays, the general elections in Pakistan were finally held on February 8, 2024. The result of this election is supposed to clarify the fate of the Pakistan government in the next 5 years. Before this election, there were events that increased the sensitivities towards the election results. Among these events was the consensus of the power centers in Pakistan - including the army, two traditional parties, and some other parties - on the toppling of Former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the exclusion of his party from the election round. The other event was the return of Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), to the country and lay the ground for his return to power, which according to public belief, was made possible by the support of the army and ignoring his previous accusations of corruption.

Many arrangements were made so that Nawaz Sharif could take over the government for the fourth time. This was while Imran Khan was imprisoned, and his party was banned from participating in the elections, with no one even could enter the elections with ‘cricket bat’ symbol- the symbol of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. Despite this, the majority of those who entered the parliament are PTI members who, due to the legal restrictions, entered the election as independent candidates. According to law, however, the government is formed by the party (not individuals) that has the majority, and so these independent candidates cannot form the government. But given that PML-N has a fragile majority in competition with other parties (here the votes of the independents, which are actually the votes of PTI, are not included), it is forced to form an alliance with other parties, including the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) whose votes are second after PML-N, and maybe even with some of these apparently independents, who are actually members of PTI. In this context, it can be predicted from now that a not very strong government will probably come to power, which will be the result of a fragile coalition.

Moreover, this election showed that the Pakistan army no longer has the former position in the eyes of the public, and apparently anyone who gets involved in a conflict with the army - such as Imran Khan - is more attracted by the public opinion - and anyone who is accused of being supported by the army will face the backlash of public opinion. In fact, the votes of PML-N and the PPP in this election are mainly their traditional votes in the two states of Punjab and Sind, and these two parties have not been welcomed by the general public (except for their traditional supporters). On the other hand, a person like Imran Khan who, along with his wife, has been sentenced to a long prison term, and his party has been banned from entering the elections and even banned from using its symbol -the cricket bat- has managed to attract public opinion. It is important to find why such a tendency and such an avoidance have taken place.

One of the reasons for the tendency toward Imran Khan is this belief in the society that he is oppressed, and he is the victim of a joint domestic and foreign conspiracy. The writer, here, does not intend to confirm or deny the truth of this belief, but the existence of this belief in Pakistani society cannot be denied. In a society where its people show emotional and sentimental behavior in such conditions, this tendency is not a strange thing.

After the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the same behavior happened to Mr. Zardari, her husband. Before that, Zardari was not popular in the society and he was facing financial charges, and it was even said that he did not have a good relationship with his wife. But he managed to ride the wave of emotions caused by the assassination of Mrs. Bhutto, and win the necessary votes for a 5-year rule. In that situation, even Nawaz Sharif promised not to do anything to oust the PPP government for 5 years, provided that the same commitment exists in the next elections. In this context, these two parties opposed the army and General Musharraf, and then, his successor General Kayani. It created a kind of coordination between them. So when the next government was handed over to PML-N, the Nawaz Sharif government could end its five year- term, and only its prime ministers were changed - despite the fact that there were accusations against Nawaz Sharif, and there was heavy pressure from the army and the judiciary on him.

Perhaps one of the reasons why the army turned to Imran Khan at the end of the PML-N government term (2013-2018) was this united behavior of the two traditional parties towards the army, which was against the army's expectations and intolerable for it.
Now, in a surprising event, we are again witnessing the return of the army to the traditional parties, as well as the tacit agreement of the traditional parties on consolidating power. In the last couple days after the election, Mr. Zardari and Nawaz Sharif had a meeting. Although, in this meeting, Nawaz Sharif complained about Bilawal Bhutto's behavior, Mr. Zardari emphasized the necessity of unity between the two parties in a situation where PTI has entered the parliament again.

The next point in explaining the reason why people are turning to Imran Khan is his anti-Western attitude and aggressive literature towards the West. Imran Khan strongly complained about the arrogant behavior of American presidents, who avoided even a phone call with him, and said that he did not want a slavery- like relations with the U.S. Of course, the author does not believe that Imran Khan is an anti-Western character, but his mentality is in a way that he wants to have equal relations, and not relations which, according to his own definition, is slavery. The same mentality has been welcomed by the people of Pakistan, who generally have strong anti-Western and anti-American feelings. In this election, the same mentality has made Imran Khan's supporters the majority of those elected.

Another point is Imran Khan's simple life, without luxuries, which has made a special status for him in Pakistan society. The accusations of corruption against him were to break this public's perception, which of course did not have an effect; Therefore, to strike the last blow, he was accused of revealing government secrets and security charges. But, contrary to the expectations of Imran Khan's oppositions, all these efforts ended up in his favor and today he is the nameless winner of Pakistan's election.

Another reason for the tendency toward Imran Khan in the past and now is the emergence or rebellion of a social group in Pakistan society against the ruling political triangle, which is usually referred to it as the middle class, or petty bourgeoisie, or similar ones. The author not intend to create any restrictions to this class, by mentioning these names to it, because these names may only refer to the economic status. The author believes that in the cultural and social spheres, it is also a kind of escape from the center – escape from the main institutions of power, the generally bourgeois and rich traditional parties, as well as the religious parties known to follow the army - which is another reason for the victory of PTI. Here, it is important to note that despite all these successes achieved by Imran Khan and PTI, the army has also achieved a partial success in its objective. Now, the army will see the government in the hands of someone with whom it is allegedly have reached an agreement, and found him suitable for cooperate again.

Regarding the elected PTI members, there are two scenarios about their behavior in the parliament:
First, they may enter into various coalitions, and somehow into a deal with different parties. In this case, they will lose their unity and integrity, and will not have a new impact on political trends in the future. The second scenario is that while maintaining their unity (even if relatively), they will avoid coalition with traditional parties, and will form a strong opposition in the parliament. In this case, it is expected that many problems will arise for the party forming the government. The result of this situation is the continuity of challenge in the Pakistan's political environment.

Another important point in Pakistan's election was that despite the strong participation of the Sipah-e-Sahaba (Ahl-e- Sunnat Wal Jamaat) into the election, and introduction of 136 candidates, until the time of writing this article, no candidate of this extremist and takfiri party has been among the winners. This shows that the people of Pakistan turning their backs on the thought of Extremism and Takfirism, which is a good thing. The political activists of Pakistan should try to continue it in order to get rid of the problems of extremism in Pakistan to some extent. Of course, the attitude and management of the army, which is now trying to hobble extremist groups in Pakistan, has also had an undeniable effect in achieving this result.
Finally, by holding the elections on 8 February 2024, the rulers of Pakistan will be determined for the next five years. Everyone who takes office, more than anything, seeks to save Pakistan from the economic crisis, confront the growth of extremism, redefine relations with neighbors, decide on the existing challenges with two neighbors (India and Afghanistan), and define and restore Pakistan's position in the regional and international arenas and among the players in this arena.

​ Abbas Fayaz; Expert on Pakistan issues