Introduction
Due to its geographical location, Afghanistan is a landlocked country with no direct access to open seas. As a result, its economy—particularly in the areas of imports, foreign trade, and the supply of essential goods—depends heavily on the transit routes of neighboring countries. Consequently, any disruption in regional trade routes directly affects Afghanistan’s market and economic conditions. 
Under these circumstances, the U.S.–Zionist Regime war against Iran (Ramadan War) and the developments arising from it became one of the most significant variables influencing Afghanistan’s economy. This article seeks to examine the economic impacts of the U.S.–Zionist Regime war against Iran on Afghanistan.
To this end, the article first explains the structure of Afghanistan’s foreign trade and the country’s dependence on imports and regional transit routes. It then examines Iran’s position within Afghanistan’s economy and finally assesses the war’s economic consequences for Afghanistan’s markets, trade, and economic stability.
 
Structure of Afghanistan’s Foreign Trade
Over recent decades, Afghanistan’s economy has become increasingly dependent on imports, with the majority of the country’s essential needs being supplied through foreign markets. Limited domestic production capacity, weak industrial infrastructure, deterioration of the manufacturing sector, ongoing insecurity, political crises, and similar factors have prevented Afghanistan from producing a large share of its consumer and industrial requirements domestically. Consequently, imports have become the main pillar supporting the country’s economic and livelihood needs.
Most of Afghanistan’s essential goods are imported through neighboring countries and regional powers. This extensive dependence has made Afghanistan’s economy highly vulnerable to political, security, and transit developments in the region. Therefore, any disruption in surrounding trade routes directly affects the country’s domestic market.
The Role of Foreign Countries in Afghanistan’s Economic Structure
At present, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, China, and the Central Asian countries are Afghanistan’s principal suppliers of imports, each covering a specific segment of the Afghan market’s needs. Among these countries, Iran occupies a particularly prominent position and has become Afghanistan’s largest trading partner in recent years.
A substantial portion of Afghanistan’s fuel and energy requirements—including gasoline, diesel fuel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and bitumen—is imported from Iran. In addition, Iran is a major supplier of construction materials such as cement, gypsum, iron, steel, tiles, and ceramics. It also accounts for a large share of consumer goods, chemical products, plastics, detergents, and part of Afghanistan’s food supply.
Although the United Arab Emirates is not the primary producer of many consumer goods, it plays a crucial role in Afghan trade as one of the region’s most important re-export and transit hubs. A significant portion of vehicles, spare parts, electronic equipment, smartphones, household appliances, and clothing enters Afghanistan through UAE markets. In effect, the UAE serves as a commercial hub for transferring Asian and global goods to Afghanistan.
China also occupies an important position in Afghanistan’s import structure. Most machinery, industrial equipment, electrical systems, solar power systems, construction tools, textiles, and low-cost consumer goods in Afghanistan originate from China. Afghanistan’s dependence on Chinese goods, especially industrial equipment and consumer products, has increased significantly in recent years.
The Central Asian countries—particularly Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan—have also emerged as important economic actors in Afghanistan’s trade. These countries play a particularly significant role in energy and grain supplies. A considerable portion of Afghanistan’s imported electricity comes from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, while Kazakhstan is one of the leading exporters of wheat and flour to Afghanistan.
In addition, Russia supplies part of Afghanistan’s liquefied gas, wheat, and vegetable oil needs, while India plays an important role in exporting some food products, spices, pharmaceuticals, and industrial raw materials to Afghanistan. Although Russia’s and India’s shares are smaller compared to Iran or the UAE, both countries maintain notable positions in certain sectors of the Afghan market.
By contrast, Pakistan’s share—which until recently made it one of Afghanistan’s most important trading partners—has nearly fallen to zero in recent months. Due to political tensions between the Taliban government and Pakistan, as well as the prolonged closure of borders and dry ports between the two countries, formal trade and transit between Kabul and Islamabad have almost ceased. This development has significantly altered Afghanistan’s foreign trade structure. As a result, a portion of Pakistan’s former share in Afghanistan’s market has shifted to Iran, the Central Asian countries, and, to a lesser extent, India.
Ranking of Countries Exporting to Afghanistan
According to existing reports as well as qualitative assessments of Afghanistan’s import structure, Iran currently accounts for approximately 42 percent of Afghanistan’s imports, making it the country’s largest supplier. This position stems from Iran’s geo-economic advantages and its role in supplying both essential and non-essential goods. Furthermore, the disruption of Afghanistan’s trade with Pakistan has strengthened Iran’s position.
Following Iran, the Central Asian countries hold second place with approximately 18 percent of Afghanistan’s imports, playing a major role in supplying electricity, grains, flour, and other essential goods. Their geographical proximity to Afghanistan, the Taliban government’s efforts to diversify supply sources through Central Asia, the transfer of part of Pakistan’s former market share to these countries, and their export potential have all made Central Asia as the second largest exporter to Afghanistan.
The United Arab Emirates also accounts for around 18 percent of Afghanistan’s imports and remains the primary re-export center for high-value goods such as vehicles, electronic equipment, and household appliances.
China, with approximately 15 percent of the Afghan market, supplies most of Afghanistan’s industrial goods, electrical equipment, machinery, and solar energy systems.
India holds roughly 7 percent of the market, and supplies part of Afghanistan’s food products, pharmaceuticals, and industrial raw materials.
Russia, maintaining an estimated 3 percent share, remains a supplier of liquefied gas, vegetable oil, and grain to Afghanistan.

Iran: The Main Artery of Afghanistan’s Economy
The available evidence and data indicate that Iran has become the most important external actor in Afghanistan’s economy. This role extends beyond the volume of bilateral trade and encompasses energy security, the supply of essential goods, regional transit, and the relative stability of Afghanistan’s market.
In recent years, particularly following the intensification of political tensions between the Taliban government and Pakistan and the resulting disruptions in trade and transit between the two countries, Afghanistan’s economic dependence on Iran has increased substantially. As a result, Iran’s role has evolved beyond that of a conventional trading partner and into one of the primary arteries of Afghanistan’s economy.
According to available statistics, Iran is now Afghanistan’s largest trading partner. Bilateral trade between the two countries reached approximately $3.5 billion during 2025 and the first five months of 2026, the majority of which consisted of Iranian exports to Afghanistan. At the same time, Afghan exports to Iran have increased in recent months, and some goods that were previously exported to Pakistan have been redirected to the Iranian market. This trend suggests that economic relations between the two countries are no longer purely one-sided but are gradually evolving into a deeper and more sustainable economic partnership.
Iran’s importance to Afghanistan extends beyond trade volumes. Geographic proximity, low transportation costs, and the strong integration of the two markets have ensured the widespread and continuous presence of Iranian goods in Afghanistan. However, perhaps the most significant aspect of Iran’s role is its position as a transit country. Following the sharp decline in Afghanistan’s trade with Pakistan, routes through Iran and Central Asia became Afghanistan’s primary gateways to global trade. Among these options, Iran acquired greater importance due to its access to open seas, port facilities, road networks, and railway infrastructure.
The Port of Chabahar and Iran’s road and rail corridors have become some of the principal channels through which goods enter Afghanistan. A large portion of Afghanistan’s imports from the United Arab Emirates, India, China, and other countries now pass through Iranian territory and ports. For this reason, Iran is no longer merely an exporter of goods but has become Afghanistan’s principal gateway to global markets.
Demonstration of Iran’s Vital Role During the Ramadan War
The significance of Iran’s position in Afghanistan’s economy became even more apparent during the U.S.–Zionist Regime war against Iran (Ramadan War). At the outset of the conflict, many believed that given Afghanistan’s heavy dependence on imports and the simultaneous closure of Pakistani routes, any major disruption to Iranian exports and transit networks could plunge Afghanistan’s economy into a severe crisis. A substantial portion of Afghanistan’s fuel, food products, construction materials, and consumer goods originates from Iran, while a significant share of imports from the UAE, China, and India also transit through Iranian territory.
However, the course of the conflict demonstrated that, contrary to many predictions, trade between Iran and Afghanistan did not collapse or experience widespread interruption. The commercial borders between the two countries remained open, and Iranian exports to Afghanistan continued. In some sectors, bilateral trade even increased, with Iran absorbing part of Pakistan’s vacated market share in both exports and imports.
In the transit sector, although the conflict and insecurity in the Persian Gulf increased transportation and insurance costs and slowed the movement of goods, Iran’s road and rail corridors remained operational, allowing most of Afghanistan’s foreign trade to continue. This demonstrated Iran’s determination to keep trade with Afghanistan as insulated as possible from military tensions and regional pressures.
Nevertheless, the continuation of direct trade between Iran and Afghanistan did not mean that Afghanistan’s economy was immune to the consequences of war. The most significant effects emerged not through the complete interruption of Iranian exports but through disruptions to regional maritime and transit networks, rising transportation costs, and the creation of inflationary expectations. In other words, while most Iranian exports continued to reach Afghanistan, goods originating from the United Arab Emirates, China, India, and other global markets—and passing through Iran’s ports and transit corridors—faced much greater disruptions. This, in turn, imposed considerable inflationary pressure on Afghanistan’s market.
Therefore, the experience of the war demonstrated that Iran is not merely a market or temporary trade route for Afghanistan. Rather, it constitutes an integral part of Afghanistan’s geo-economic structure and economic stability. Recent developments have also shown that Iran has effectively become the principal pillar sustaining the continuity of Afghanistan’s foreign trade and, even under wartime conditions, has sought to preserve its position as Afghanistan’s main transit corridor. This reality further highlights Iran’s geo-economic importance to Afghanistan’s economy.
 
The Impact of the Ramadan War on Afghanistan’s Economy
Although during the U.S.–Zionist Regime war against Iran, Iran’s direct exports to Afghanistan did not cease and bilateral trade even expanded in certain sectors, Afghan markets—particularly in Kabul—experienced a significant rise in prices, with the cost of many goods increasing by 20 to 30 percent. At first glance, this situation may appear contradictory, as one would expect the market to maintain relative stability as long as trade continues. However, the reality is that in dependent and fragile economies such as Afghanistan’s, price increases are not necessarily the result of a complete halt in trade. Even when imports continue, a heightened perception of geopolitical risks, disruptions in transit networks, rising transportation costs, and the emergence of inflationary expectations can lead to substantial price surges.
Due to its heavy dependence on imports and the weakness of its domestic production structure, Afghanistan has limited capacity to absorb regional shocks, and its market reacts rapidly to political and security developments. During the war, the psychological atmosphere created by the possibility of an expanding crisis, traders’ concerns regarding the future of trade routes, and consumers’ fears of commodity shortages became factors contributing to price increases. Under such conditions, even without a complete interruption in the flow of goods, the market entered a phase of psychological instability and inflationary expectations. Traders and importers, anticipating difficulties in replenishing inventories, raised prices, while parts of the market shifted toward hoarding and precautionary purchasing.
A more significant factor was the disruption of regional transit and maritime trade. Although Iran’s direct exports to Afghanistan largely continued and Iranian goods remained available in Afghan markets, imports of a large portion of consumer goods, electronic equipment, household appliances, vehicle spare parts, and certain food products—whose primary origins were the United Arab Emirates, China, and India and which entered Afghanistan through Iranian ports and transit routes—experienced interruptions and delays. Consequently, the war and insecurity in the Persian Gulf affected the region’s transit network more than they disrupted direct Iran–Afghanistan trade.
This situation was particularly noticeable in Kabul, as Afghanistan’s capital is more dependent than other cities on extensive import and distribution networks, and even minor disruptions in supply chains quickly become visible in its markets. Furthermore, rising fuel prices and increased transportation costs contributed to the spread of inflationary pressures in the Afghan market. In an economy where the majority of goods are imported, any increase in transportation costs directly affects the final price of commodities. Therefore, even though Iran’s direct exports to Afghanistan continued and prevented a complete collapse in trade, Afghanistan’s economy remained affected by war-related shocks, and the domestic market faced inflation, price increases, and temporary shortages of certain goods.
 
Overall Assessment
An examination of Afghanistan’s foreign trade structure and developments during the U.S.–Zionist Regime war against Iran leads to a strategic finding. Afghanistan’s economic reliance on Iran differs from its dependence on other neighboring countries and trading partners. It is not merely a simple dependency relationship; rather, it is reliance on a ‘multifaceted, stable, and reliable source’. While Iran’s approximately 40 percent share of Afghanistan’s import market is in itself a significant figure, what distinguishes Iran from other suppliers such as the United Arab Emirates (re-export trade), China (industrial goods), or Pakistan (politically unstable borders) is a combination of three unique characteristics, as follows:

1. Exceptional Product Diversity
Unlike many trading partners that supply only one or two categories of goods (for example, China in machinery or Central Asian countries in electricity and grain), Iran simultaneously provides Afghanistan with fuel, liquefied gas, construction materials, food products, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and industrial raw materials. This diversity means that Afghanistan relies on a single partner to meet a wide range of essential needs, rather than depending on several fragmented and vulnerable suppliers.

2. A Central Transit Role
Iran is not merely a supplier of goods; it also serves as the principal gateway through which products from other countries—including the United Arab Emirates, India, and China—enter Afghanistan. This dual function (direct supply plus transit) enables the Iranian route to maintain the flow of goods to a considerable extent even when disruptions occur in other supply sources.

3. Trade Stability and Continuity During Crises: The Most Distinctive Advantage
The experience of the past three months of war demonstrated that, contrary to pessimistic forecasts, Iran’s economy possesses a strong and resilient foundation. While many countries tend to suspend or restrict exports during military crises or under severe sanctions, Iran managed to continue supplying goods to the Afghan market without any significant disruption. Commercial borders remained open, exports of fuel and essential commodities continued uninterrupted, and even Iran’s transit role was preserved.
This characteristic of “resilience during crises” is difficult to find among Afghanistan’s other neighbors. Pakistan repeatedly closes its borders for political reasons, Central Asian routes depend on limited infrastructure, and the UAE functions primarily as a transit intermediary without a sustainable production base.
Overall, although Afghanistan’s heavy dependence on imports inherently creates vulnerabilities, its reliance on Iran—because of Iran’s multifunctional role, product diversity, transit role, and, most importantly, its proven resilience under wartime conditions—constitutes not a weakness but rather a rational and reliable strategic option for ensuring economic security and maintaining stability in Afghanistan’s consumer market. This level of reliability has made Iran a unique and irreplaceable partner among all of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries.